Earlier this month, Ars spoke with the Consumer Technology Association's vice president of international trade, Ed Brzytwa, to check in and see how tech firms have navigated Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff regimes so far.
Brzytwa has led CTA's research helping tech firms prepare for Trump's trade war, but during our talk, he confirmed that "the reality has been a lot more difficult and far worse, because of not just the height of the tariffs, but the variability, the tariffs on, tariffs off."
Currently, every tech company is in a "slightly different position," depending on its specific supply chains, he explained. However, until semiconductor tariffs are announced, "it's impossible" for any tech company to make the kind of long-term plans that could help keep consumer prices low as Trump's negotiations with foreign partners and investigations into various products drag on, Brzytwa said.
Ahead of the busy holiday shopping season, Brzytwa suggested that many companies may be prepared to maintain prices, based on front-loading of inventory by firms in anticipation of more complicated tariff regimes coming. But some companies, notably in the video game industry, have already begun warning of tariff-related price hikes, Brzytwa noted, and for others likely delaying for as long as they can, there remains a question of "what happens when that inventory disappears?"
For the next two months, CTA plans to monitor the situation, Brzytwa said. That research will result in studies revealing "who bears the burden of the tariffs" and "what the long-term ramifications are going to be for consumer technology companies when it comes to lost sales because of potentially higher prices due to the tariffs," Brzytwa said.
In the meantime, Brzytwa warned that tech firms are preparing for what CTA has dubbed "a possible triple whammy." To help Ars readers understand how things are about to get even more complicated, Brzytwa explained why "tariff stacking"—where manufacturers may be double-, triple-, or possibly even quadruple-taxed on products that may contain materials subjected to individual tariffs, like semiconductors, polysilicon, or copper—has become a "bureaucratic nightmare" for makers of consumer electronics struggling to estimate total tariff impacts.
"Where does it stop?" Brzytwa posited. "We don't know. So 'triple whammy' might be an understatement."
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