From the outside, Counter-Strike 2 looks a lot like a game that’s primarily about shooting people. For millions of players, though, the game is more about collecting and/or buying rare in-game loot and flipping it for what can be very significant sums on the Steam Marketplace.
Wednesday night, Valve sent that multi-billion-dollar market into turmoil as part of a so-called “small update.” Now, players can use the game’s “Trade Up contracts” to exchange five common, “Covert” items (also known as “reds”) for the kinds of knives and gloves that have until now been much harder to obtain.
That “small update” has unsurprisingly had an immediate and sharp impact on the Marketplace price for those items. One rare knife that sold for over $14,000 less than 24 hours ago has seen its minimum price plummet over 50 percent as of this writing, according to the trackers at Pricempire. Meanwhile, the median sale price for a common P90 Asimov gun on the Steam Marketplace shot up from $10 on Wednesday to well over $100 as of this writing.
Across the CS2 market as a whole, the massive losses from the rare knives and gloves seem to be overwhelming the sudden surge in price for those common “red” items. Pricempire estimates that the “market cap” for all CS2 items plummeted over 30 percent overnight from an all-time high of just over $6 billion to a total value of just under $4.3 billion as of this writing.
A crash or a correction?
How CS2 players are reacting to these massive swings depends largely on which side of the unexpected shift they ended up on. One Redditor posted a screenshot showing that his collection of over 600 “worthless red skins” is now theoretically worth over £3.3 million (about $4.4 million) if liquidated. Meanwhile one Chinese skin trader posted a photo on social media showing the value of his collection dropping by about 6.4 million Yuan (about $900,000) in less than a day.
Valve benefits from any panicked trading in the short term, with every Steam Marketplace sale carrying a 5 percent “Steam Transaction Fee” on top of a 10 percent “Counter-Strike 2 fee… that is determined and collected by the game publisher” (read: Valve). In the long term, though, making some of the rarest items in the game easier to obtain will likely depress overall spending among the whales that dominate the market.
Using marketplace data, Irish Guys esports team owner SAC ran some projections estimating that, over the next few months, “the market settles about 5–10% lower overall, not a crash, just a correction.” But there are also more bullish and bearish possibilities, depending on how overall item demand and market liquidity develops in the near future.
Market tracker CSFloat also crunched some numbers to determine that the overall supply of knives and gloves could roughly double if every common item were traded up under the new update. In practice, though, the supply increase will likely be “far less.”
Massive monetary shifts aside, this latest update seems set to make it easier for new CS2 players to access some once-rare in-game items without breaking the bank. “I got burned a little [by the update]… but honestly, this is the way to go for the long term health of the game,” Redditor chbotong wrote. “[It’s] given me faith that Valve is actually steering in a direction that favors the average player than a market whale.”
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