How much does Predator: Badlands need to make to break even?

Predator: Badlands had a record-breaking opening weekend at the global box office, but what does the sci-fi sequel need to gross to break even?

If you include crossover movies, Predator: Badlands is the ninth film in the Predator franchise that launched with a beloved Arnold Schwarzenegger action movie back in 1987.

The new film is already one of the most well-received Predator movies critically, and we concur, writing in our Predator: Badlands review that “it boasts some slick action alongside some disarmingly funny performances from Elle Fanning in her twin roles, and Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi brings a unique energy to a role that could have been predictably two dimensional.”

It’s also proving to be a hit commercially, thanks to a huge opening weekend. But will that be enough to turn a profit?

How much Predator: Badlands needs to make to break even

With a reported production budget of $105 million, Predator: Badlands likely needs to gross around $262 million.

How did we get to that figure? Well, the rule of thumb is that new movies need to make approximately 2.5 times their original budget to break even due to the additional costs such as fees to exhibitors, merchandising, and taxes. 

The $105 million sum is the estimated production budget, meaning there are also marketing costs to consider, which for a 20th Century Studios’ franchise flicks can exceed $100 million. Plus, studios only keep about 50-60% of box office revenue (and even less from international markets). 

So, even if Predator: Badlands hits $262 million, it wouldn’t represent a major profit, but rather a modest return for a film of this scale and cost.

Predator: Badlands box office total

Predator: Badlands grossed $40 million in the US and $40 million overseas for a global debut of $80 million.

That first $40 million – which came from 3,725 US screens – well exceeded prerelease tracking of $25 million, and makes it the biggest domestic launch for a Predator film, outpacing frontrunner AVP: Alien vs Predator, which debuted to $38.4 million in 2004 (not adjusted for inflation).

The worldwide number of $80 million is also the biggest global total for the franchise, easily outperforming The Predator, which kicked off with $48.9 million in 2018.

Badlands faces stiff competition from The Running Man this coming weekend, as being a sci-fi action movie with its roots in the 1980s, Edgar Wright’s film will doubtless appeal to a similar audience and demographic.

But word-of-mouth should be strong, thanks to Rotten Tomatoes scores of 85% with critics and 95% with audiences, both of which suggest that this Predator will have box office legs.