Hurricane Melissa will make landfall in southern Jamaica less than 24 hours from now, and it is likely to be the most catastrophic storm in the Caribbean island’s history.
As it crawled across the northern Caribbean Sea on Monday morning, Melissa officially became a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so, perhaps undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. But the background conditions, including very warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear, will support a very powerful hurricane and the potential for further strengthening.
Strongest Jamaican hurricane
This means that Melissa will almost certainly be the strongest tropical system to strike Jamaica in more than 150 years of records, eclipsing Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which struck the island as a Category 3 storm and caused 45 deaths.
The island, the third largest in the Caribbean by area and with a population of more than 3 million people, has had plenty of advance warning about the threat of Melissa. Forecasts have generally indicated that the island would be in the storm’s crosshairs and that rapid intensification was likely over the weekend.
Nevertheless, it’s difficult to prepare for a hurricane like this. Melissa has already brought waves of heavy rainfall to Jamaica, and before it exits to the north on Tuesday night, some locations are likely to see in excess of 40 inches. That will cause significant mudslides in the country. The storm’s winds will destroy buildings and power lines, and its surge will inundate coastal areas.
The sole bright spot is that, as of Monday, the core of the storm’s strongest winds remains fairly small. Based on recent data, its hurricane-force winds only extend about 25 miles from the center. Unfortunately, Melissa will make a direct hit on Jamaica, with the island’s capital city of Kingston to the right of the center, where winds and surge will be greatest.
Beyond Jamaica, Melissa will likely be one of the strongest hurricanes on record to hit Cuba. Melissa will impact the eastern half of the island on Tuesday night, bringing the trifecta of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge. The storm also poses lesser threats to Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and potentially Bermuda down the line. There will be no impacts in the United States.
A sneakily strong season
Most US coastal residents will consider this Atlantic season, which officially ends in a little more than a month, to be fairly quiet. There have been relatively few direct impacts to the United States from named storms.
But this season has been sneakily strong. Melissa is just the 45th storm since 1851 to reach Category 5 status, as defined as having sustained winds of 157 mph or greater. Already this year, Erin and Humberto reached Category 5 status, and now Melissa is the third such hurricane. Fortunately, the former two storms posed minimal threat to land.
Before this year, there had only ever been one season with three Category 5 hurricanes on record: 2005, which featured three storms that all impacted US Gulf states and had their names retired, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
Hager Bocchiotti, ecco le nuove stazioni di ricarica che semplificano la mobilità elettrica