Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is reported to be one of the most expensive movies ever made, and it could be a tall order for the film to break even at the box office.
Dead Reckoning (Part 1, which has since been axed from the title) was a great M:I movie, but it underperformed. Fallout grossed over $790 million, while its sequel made $571 million worldwide.
Issues with its Part 1 title and anything in the film itself aside, it was a victim of theatrical scheduling: it released one week before Barbie and Oppenheimer (aka Barbenheimer), the defining cinematic event of 2023, which also happened to take all of the IMAX screens.
In short, there’s no reason to believe Mission: Impossible 8 will flop; it’s the final entry, Tom Cruise is a bankable movie star, and it’s enjoyed a long, successful marketing rollout. However, it’s still a risk.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning box office projections
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is estimated to make between $70-80 million domestically in its opening weekend, though that figure could go as high as $100 million.
The Final Reckoning marks the first time the franchise has released a new movie over the Memorial Day weekend since Mission: Impossible 2, which opened with a four-day total of $70.8m (as per Box Office Pro).
Its three predecessors – Dead Reckoning, Fallout, and Rogue Nation – all opened at number one, but they didn’t have a competitor like Lilo and Stitch, which has been attracting Disney’s strongest pre-sales since 2019’s The Lion King remake (which became one of the highest-grossing movies ever made).
It’ll be a great weekend for theaters regardless, as it may be one of the biggest Memorial Day weekends in box office history. The question is: how much will Lilo and Stitch affect Mission: Impossible? Fun fact: the original Lilo and Stitch opened on the same weekend as Minority Report in 2002.
The Final Reckoning has a big advantage: it has exclusivity on IMAX screens for three weeks until the How to Train Your Dragon remake, which could help retain sales and even lead to re-watches.
How much was the Mission: Impossible 8 budget?
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning reportedly has a budget of at least $400 million.
In a Puck newsletter published earlier in May, the film’s price tag is said to “start with a four (as in, hundred million)… [it’s] in contention for the most expensive movie ever made.”
For the record, if we estimate Mission: Impossible 8’s budget at $400 million, this is where it’d rank among the priciest films ever made:
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $447 million
- Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – $432 million
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – $416 million
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – $400 million
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides – $379 million
- Avengers: Age of Ultron – $365 million
- Avengers: Endgame – $356 million
- Avatar: The Way of Water – $350 million
- Fast X – $340 million
- Avengers: Infinity War – $325 million
It should be noted that it’s not an indulgent budget. Yes, Cruise’s bi-plane stunt and his underwater sequence will have cost a lot of money, as will the movie’s globetrotting plot, but The Final Reckoning was in development through the COVID pandemic, so it’s absorbed the costs of shutdowns and other restrictions.
One insider told the publication: “It’s a big, expensive movie – no doubt – but it has enormous value [beyond theatrical revenue]. I’m sure we’d do it all over again.”
How much does Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning need to break even?
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning may need to make $1 billion to break even.
That may seem a little confusing, but it’s generally believed that a movie needs to make 2.5x its budget to break even (consider all of the costs; fees to exhibitors, merchandising, taxes, and much more).
However, Mission: Impossible’s budget hasn’t been strictly confirmed, and that $400 million figure may include press and advertising costs, so it may be able to break even on a slightly smaller haul.
If it does crack the $1 billion barrier (which seems unlikely, given its current tracking and the fact Lilo and Stitch is projected to be the first billion-dollar movie of 2025), it’d be the biggest M:I movie ever. Here’s how much they’ve all made:
- Mission: Impossible (1996) – $457 million
- Mission: Impossible 2 (2000) – $549 million
- Mission: Impossible 3 (2006) – $399 million
- Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol (2011) – $694 million
- Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (2015) – $688 million
- Mission: Impossible – Fallout (2018) – $786 million
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning (2023) – $565 million
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