By the time the second group of NASA astronauts reach the Moon later this decade, the space agency would like to have a lunar rover waiting for them. But as the space agency nears a key selection, some government officials are seeking an insurance policy of sorts to increase the program’s chance of success.
At issue is the agency’s “Lunar Terrain Vehicle” (LTV) contract. In April 2024, the space agency awarded a few tens of millions of dollars to three companies—Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost, and Astrolab—to complete preliminary design work on vehicle concepts. NASA then planned to down-select to one company to construct one or more rovers, land on the Moon, and provide rover services for a decade beginning in 2029. Over the lifetime of the fixed-price services contract, there was a combined maximum potential value of $4.6 billion.
The companies have since completed their design work, including the construction of prototypes, and submitted their final bids for the much larger services contract in August. According to two sources, NASA has since been weighing those bids and is prepared to announce a final selection before the end of this month.
NASA can only afford one
The problem is that NASA can only afford to fund one company’s proposal, leaving two other rovers on the cutting room floor.
This is bad for competition, and it leaves NASA vulnerable. Recently, one of NASA’s two new spacesuit providers, Collins, dropped out of the program. This left only Axiom Space as a provider of suits for the lunar surface. And back in 2014, with the Commercial Crew Program, NASA very nearly awarded all of its available funding to Boeing. (SpaceX was only added in during the final weeks before the decision was announced.) More than a decade later, Boeing has yet to deliver a finished crewed spacecraft.
“We have seen, over and over again with our commercial programs, that two is better than one,” a NASA official told Ars.
In short, having just a single company advancing its lunar rover means there is a single point failure—if that company quits for whatever reason, NASA astronauts will be left without wheels on the Moon.
For this reason, the LTV program at NASA would like to award one company the services contract while also funding a second company as a “warm backup.” Essentially, the backup company would receive a few hundred million dollars—a tiny fraction of the overall contract—over the next several years to progress through the critical design review phase. This is the final step before the construction of flight hardware. So if a significant problem arose with the primary company, this second bidder could be activated.
“This would be a cheap insurance policy,” a source said.
Preserving flexibility
A warm backup would not only preserve flexibility in the LTV program but could also prevent one or more of the companies from going out of business.
The agency is concerned about losing the investments and innovations that two of the newest LTV companies, Lunar Outpost and Astrolab, have made in the lunar economy. Although leaders of both companies have said they will press on with lunar rover development if they don’t win the large services contract, NASA officials aren’t sure that will be possible. The companies have signed up some commercial customers for their rovers, but it may be difficult to close a business case without NASA’s investment. The third company, Intuitive Machines, has other lines of business beyond its LTV program.
The officials praised the varying designs of the rovers by each company, each of which supports different use cases from extra mobility to research capacity. NASA’s fairly lean requirements allowed the companies to develop innovative proposals.
“All of the proposed rovers are different, and it’s a great result of a competition,” one of the sources said.
Right now, the LTV program does not have the funding available to create a warm backup option. If the decision were made today, just a single company would receive an award.
The decision is complicated by the fact that NASA Headquarters is reticent to make a decision on something like this, even at a cost of tens of millions of dollars a year, without firm leadership in place. It is clear that interim administrator Sean Duffy will be departing soon. NASA nominee Jared Isaacman is due to undergo a confirmation hearing Wednesday, and there is some hope he will be confirmed by the full Senate in mid-December.
On such a timeline, Isaacman would need to make a decision in the early days of his tenure to preserve a warm backup option for LTV.
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