According to new polling data, nearly 80 percent of Americans support extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of this year—and are at the center of a funding dispute that led to a shutdown of the federal government this week.
The poll, conducted by KFF and released Friday, found that 78 percent of Americans want the tax credits extended, including 92 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of Republicans—and even a majority (57 percent) of Republicans who identify as Donald Trump-aligned MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters.
A separate analysis published by KFF earlier this week found that if the credits are not extended, monthly premiums for ACA Marketplace plans would more than double on average. Specifically, the current average premium of $888 would jump to $1,904 in 2026, a 114 percent increase.
Consequences
The polling released today found that, in addition to broad support for the credits, many Americans are unaware that they are in peril. About six in ten adults say they have heard "a little" (30 percent) or "nothing at all" (31 percent) about the credits expiring.
"There is a hot debate in Washington about the looming ACA premium hikes, but our poll shows that most people in the marketplaces don’t know about them yet and are in for a shock when they learn about them in November," KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said in a statement.
Yet more concerning, the poll found that among people who buy their own insurance plans, 70 percent said they would face a significant disruption to their household finances if their premiums were to double. Furthermore, 42 percent said they would ultimately go without health insurance in such a case. Currently, over 24 million Americans get their insurance through the ACA Marketplace.
The poll was conducted between September 23 to 29—just days before the October 1 government shut down—and included 1,334 US adults, with a margin of error of +/- 3 points in the full sample.
Distorted discussion
Strong support for the credits comes three days into the government shutdown over the spending impasse. Republican lawmakers proposed a continuing resolution that would fund the government until November 21, but Democrats are pushing for health care provisions that would reverse cuts to Medicaid in Trump's big spending bill signed into law earlier this year, as well as extend the enhanced premium tax credits for ACA plans. President Donald Trump and others in his administration have attempted to distort the disagreement by falsely claiming that Democrats are pushing to provide free healthcare to undocumented immigrants.
As Leonardo Cuello, a professor at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy’s Center for Children and Families, wrote in a fact-checking blog post Thursday, neither extending the ACA credits or reversing Medicaid cuts would benefit undocumented immigrants—because they are not eligible for any federal health programs to begin with.
"As we have written repeatedly, undocumented immigrants have never been eligible for full Medicaid coverage. In fact, even many lawfully present immigrants are not eligible for Medicaid. Undocumented immigrants have also never been eligible for premium tax credits to purchase Marketplace plans, and cannot even purchase a private plan on the Marketplace with their own money."
The only thing close to the Trump administration's false claim is that a small Medicaid program does reimburse hospitals for providing federally required care for some uninsured people, which can include undocumented immigrants. But the program is not exclusively for undocumented immigrants, accounts for a tiny fraction of Medicaid's budget, and would be covered by states regardless of federal reimbursements.
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